The cost efficiency of hydrogen buses: A long-term perspective

The electrification of public transport is seen as the most promising way to decarbonize mobility and meet regulatory requirements in a growing number of countries. In this context, 2 main technologies are emerging for bus fleets: battery-electric buses (BEB) and hydrogen buses (FCEB for Fuel Cell Electric Bus) 

Each technology has its benefits and drawbacks, making the choice a complex one for fleet managers and bus manufacturers alike.
However, the fleet's Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) remains a decisive factor. While Hydrogen buses have a higher initial cost today, they can prove to be a worthwhile choice in the long term.
 

I. A matter of regulations and brand image

Environmental regulations are boosting the transition of bus fleets to cleaner technologies. For example, Low Emission Zones (LEZ) impose restrictions on diesel-powered vehicles, encouraging the adoption of zero-emission solutions. These regulations aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality in urban areas.

For public transport operators, adopting clean technologies is not just about regulatory compliance; it's also about brand image and environmental responsibility. Companies that invest in sustainable solutions are perceived positively by the public, which can enhance their attractiveness and thus enhance the demand.

Hydrogen buses and battery-electric buses both meet these zero-emission requirements. They also provide smooth driving experiences as they do not emit any noices, vibrations, smells or heat. However, they have different characteristics, and the choice between the two options must be based on the specific needs of each operator.
 

II. Battery-electric and hydrogen buses: benefits and drawbacks

The 2 technologies each have their benefits and drawbacks. But they both have a role to play in decarbonizing public transport.

1. Battery-electric buses

The benefits of battery-electric buses are as follows:

• Zero emissions from tank to wheel: battery-electric buses emit no local pollution, contributing to better urban air quality.
• Very low noise: electric buses are extremely quiet, enhancing passenger comfort and reducing noise pollution in urban environments.
• Soft and powerful driveline.
• Efficient braking energy recovery.

At the same time, this technology requires:

• Long charging times, which limit fleet flexibility.
• More limited passenger capacity: batteries are heavy and bulky, which can reduce payload capacity and affect range.
• Reduced range, making buses less suitable for long-distance journeys.
• Extensive refurbishment of depots to accommodate recharging stations.
   

2. Hydrogen buses

On top of all the electric buses’ benefits, hydrogen buses offer:

• Fast refueling times comparable to diesel bus refueling times.
• Greater passenger capacity than electric buses.
• A range of up to 800 km, making them particularly suitable for long-distance and intercity routes.
• Maintained performance even in difficult climatic conditions, when heating and air conditioning consume a lot of energy.

But this technology is still limited by:

• Higher initial purchase costs.
• The current cost of hydrogen, more expensive than electricity or diesel, although significant price reductions are expected by 2030.
• Underdeveloped infrastructures, requiring major investment for expansion.
   

III. Comparing long-term operating costs

Battery-electric buses currently have a higher initial cost than diesel buses, but their lower operating costs often offset this difference over the long term. Hydrogen buses also have a high initial cost, mainly due to the price of fuel cell systems and hydrogen refueling infrastructure.

However, projections show that by 2030, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of hydrogen buses could reach parity with battery-electric buses, while offering superior performance in some scenarios. This cost convergence is underpinned by technological advances, increasing production volumes , hydrogen production volume, the h2 infrastructure volume, and supportive government policies.
 

1) Factors influencing TCO 

Ownership and operating costs include a long list of factors. The most impacting ones are the initial purchase, energy costs, maintenance and vehicle lifetime:

a) Energy costs

The cost of electricity for battery-electric buses is currently lower than for hydrogen. However, global initiatives to produce green hydrogen, combined with investment in refuelling infrastructure, are likely to reduce the cost of hydrogen considerably. Its price should fall as a result of increased production and improved production and distribution technologies.

b) Maintenance

Hydrogen buses and battery-electric buses usually require less maintenance than diesel buses, due to the simplicity of their mechanical systems. However, fuel cell systems can still represent higher maintenance costs due to their complexity and relative newness.

Read more: How Hydrogen Fuel Cells Work in Buses: A Simple Explanation

c) Vehicle lifetime

The service life of batteries and fuel cells is a key factor. Batteries in battery-electric buses may need replacing after 7 to 10 years, while fuel cells in hydrogen buses aim for system replacement in the middle of the vehicle’s life cycle. 

d) Cost parity by 2030

Long-term trends point to a significant reduction in the TCO  of hydrogen buses, potentially to parity with battery-electric buses by 2030.

Fleet managers therefore need to consider these projections in their investment decisions, taking into account technological developments and, where applicable, potential subsidies.

IV. Hydrogen: the relevant option in specific situations

Hydrogen buses already offer significant advantages in certain situations.

1. Long distance routes

Hydrogen buses feature a long range of up to 600 km . This makes them particularly suitable for long-distance routes, exceeding 200-300 km per day. Unlike battery-electric buses, whose range is generally limited to around 280  km, hydrogen buses can make long-distance journeys without the need for intermediate recharging. This capability reduces service interruptions and increases operational efficiency.

2. high passenger demand

When it comes to transporting large numbers of passengers, total cost of ownership (TCO) per passenger carried becomes a crucial factor. Hydrogen buses, with their high payload capacity and extended range, are more efficient when travelling full rather than half-empty. Calculating TCO per passenger shows that hydrogen buses can offer a more cost-effective solution in scenarios of high passenger demand, particularly on longer routes.

3. Extreme weather conditions

Extreme weather conditions, such as harsh winters or very hot summers, increase the energy consumption of buses. Due to heating or air conditioning, electric buses (BEV & FCEV) often see their range reduced in these conditions. However, the loss of autonomy due to consumption of electricity and heating is less of a problem with FCEBs than with BEVs. Indeed, loosing 100km of autonomy range is more problematic with a vehicle that has full range of 300km than with an FCEV that has a range of over 600km.

4. local hydrogen industry

The presence of a local hydrogen industry, with well-developed hydrogen production and refueling infrastructures, can strongly influence the economic viability of hydrogen buses. Local initiatives and public-private partnerships to develop green hydrogen create a favorable environment for the adoption of hydrogen buses. In regions where these infrastructures are already in place or rapidly developing, they become a more attractive option.

5. Infrastructure restrictions in bus depots

Urban bus depots may be limited by available space and safety constraints to install electric recharging stations. The infrastructure needed to recharge battery-electric buses is often cumbersome and requires major refurbishment. Hydrogen buses, with their more compact and flexible refueling stations, offer an interesting alternative in these situations. What's more, the rapid refueling of hydrogen buses minimizes downtime, increasing the availability of buses for service.

Hydrogen buses are therefore particularly advantageous in specific contexts such as long distances, high passenger demand, extreme weather conditions, regions with a developed hydrogen infrastructure, and depots with space and safety constraints. Fleet managers need to assess these factors to determine whether hydrogen buses are the optimum solution for their specific needs.
 

In a few words:

The adoption of zero-emission bus technologies, whether hydrogen buses or battery-electric buses, is essential to achieving public transport decarbonization targets. Each technology has its own benefits and drawbacks, which need to be carefully weighed against the specific needs of fleet operators.

Hydrogen buses stand out for their extended range, fast refueling times and more stable performance in extreme weather conditions . They are particularly advantageous on long routes, on routes with high occupancy rates, and in regions with a well-developed hydrogen infrastructure. On the other hand, battery-electric buses offer significant advantages in terms of operating costs and reduced local emissions, but are limited by their recharging time and range.

Projections indicate that by 2030, the total cost of ownership of hydrogen buses could reach parity with that of battery-electric buses, while offering superior performance in certain scenarios. This cost convergence is underpinned by technological advances and government support policies to encourage the adoption of sustainable transport technologies.

The 2 technologies should therefore not be seen as opposites, but rather as complementary.

Download the ebook : Hydrogen Fuel Cells for LCVs & Buses: 5 Key Considerations for Product Selection and Technical Specifications